Perceived Risk vs. Actual Risk
The outcry over the Alpine Challenge has been a farcical!
It has demonstrated a distinct lack of understanding amongst the ultra running community over Perceived Risk and Actual Risk.
Perceived risk is the risk you ‘feel’ is present with an activity.
Actual risk is the risk that IS associated with an activity.
A tourist goes down to the beach for a swim. They jump in the water that looks calm, a rip is present. They felt the risk associated with going for the swim is low. Suddenly they are dragged out to sea and drown. A scary thought, but it happens regularly on Australian beaches.
The perceived risk was low but the actual risk was high.
For an experienced Surf Life Saver or experienced swimmer the perceived risk and actual risk of the situation are low. They have a skill set and experience that allows them to safely negotiate the situation above. They can swim and read the water.
The perceived risk is low and the actual risk is low.
What has occurred at The Alpine Challenge is that many ultra runners have viewed the actual risk as low, while with knowledge the actual risk is much higher.
At the Alpine Challenge the ultra runner was the tourist.
The rip was overlooked by the tourist who could not see or understand the danger that was present. And it cost them their life.
The danger at the Alpine Challenge was far higher than ultra runners realized.
- Most Australians have little or no experience walking or running in snow.
- Snow or wind blown snow quickly makes clear tracks or footsteps disappear.
- Even with a map and a compass navigation in a white out is near impossible.
- When running you sweat.
- When running ultra distances you use up your energy stores. If you get cold your body has limited energy to provide warmth. You may have experienced this getting cold on a warm day after finishing a race.
- When running you carry minimal gear. If you get lost you can’t protect yourself from the elements.
Collectively this cocktail of risks lead to far greater ACTUAL risk for runners than the PERCEIVED risk.
It is rarely one problem that will cause your demise. It is normally three or more small issues that work collectively to cause a big issue.
I love adventure. Peak Adventure. When your skill set and experience matches the challenges you face. Run the same race in Colorado, Canada or Alaska and it’s potentially a very different proposition.
Be aware race organizers are mitigating and dealing with risks you may not even be aware are present. Be thankful you still had a run.
Here’s to peak adventure and not miss adventure!
Nick